Bitcoin has been showing signs of life after a recent bounce, but it’s heading straight into heavy local resistance. With a crucial breakout or breakdown looming, this region could define the next major trend.
Bitcoin (BTC) has had a decent bounce after establishing a key swing low, but now it’s pressing into a critical resistance zone that could decide its next big move. In this breakdown, we’ll look at why this region matters, the confluences lining up, and what to expect next — whether it breaks out or continues the trend lower.
Key technical points:
- Price is approaching a major resistance confluence zone that includes the VWAPSR, 0.618 Fibonacci, and long-standing dynamic resistance.
- The apex zone is forming as daily support and dynamic resistance converge, setting up for a decisive breakout or breakdown.
- A confirmed breakout will shift market structure bullish, while rejection continues the lower high trend and opens the door to lower prices.
After finding solid support and putting in a swing low at $74,550, Bitcoin saw a strong rally, hinting that buyers stepped in around the value area low. But now, price is knocking on the door of a major resistance area — and it’s not just any resistance. This zone includes the VWAP S/R resistance, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, a key daily level, and the dynamic trendline that has acted as resistance since the all-time high. It’s basically a wall of confluence, and until price breaks through it, it’s safe to say Bitcoin is trading into resistance.
Potential of another lower high
This resistance zone is a prime candidate for a potential lower high to form, especially if we start to see signs of distribution. If price gets rejected here, it’ll likely rotate back toward daily support.
What’s really interesting is the way the dynamic resistance from the all-time high is beginning to converge with the daily support zone — creating what we’d call an apex zone. As this wedge tightens, we’re expecting a decisive move sooner rather than later. Whether that’s a clean breakout or another lower high rejection remains to be seen, but it’s a critical area worth watching.
Right now, the structure hasn’t changed. We haven’t seen a confirmed breakout, and there’s no sign yet that the trend of lower highs has ended. So the play here is simple: respect resistance until it’s broken.
A breakout above the dynamic resistance with strength would be a big shift in market character — potentially flipping the bias back to bullish and opening up room for a move toward the value area high or even retesting all-time highs. But if Bitcoin gets rejected here and rolls over, it’s just another lower high in the same trend.
The weekend factor also matters — weekend price action is usually choppy or ranging, and big weekend moves often get reversed come Monday. So staying patient and reactive rather than predictive could make all the difference here. Let the market show its hand.
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